🔍 Technical Overview
• Support Levels:
o 1.3430–1.3450: Current support zone near 50 DMA and recent lows
o 1.3369: June 23 low — primary downside target
o 1.3200–1.3139: Extended downside range if breakdown intensifies
• Resistance Levels:
o 1.3500–1.3540: Short-term cap where pound recently failed
o 1.3635: Key mid-July resistance
o 1.3747: Intraday high early last week — extended upside target
• Indicator Signals:
o RSI & Stochastics trending lower → bearish bias
o EMA crossover intact — price remains above 50-day EMA, though downside risk is rising

📰 Fundamental Drivers
• UK Fiscal Uncertainty: Reversal of spending plans and fiscal constraints hit sterling, with markets eyeing potential downgrade to ~$1.33 over the next six months
• USD Strength: Better-than-expected US labor data reduced chances of a July Fed rate cut, boosting the dollar
• Tariff Concerns: Ongoing U.S. tariff threats weigh on global risk sentiment and drag on GBP

📅 Key Events This Week
• Wednesday, July 16:
• UK CPI (Consumer Price Index) – Crucial for BoE policy outlook and inflation trajectory
• Thursday, July 17:
• US CPI – A key gauge for Fed's stance on rate cuts or holding steady
• Friday, July 18:
• US PPI (Producer Price Index) – A leading inflation signal
• Potential updates on U.S. tariffs – May impact risk sentiment and USD flow

📌 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
🔼 Bullish Case (Short Rebound)
• Maintaining 1.3450–1.3430 support may trigger a rebound toward 1.3540, then 1.3635
• Rally above 1.3635 could challenge 1.3747
🔽 Bearish Case (Deeper Correction)
• Breach below 1.3430 → target 1.3369, then 1.3200–1.3139
• Sustained fiscal instability or strong US data may accelerate the decline