1. Fundamental Analysis
🇺🇸 United States
1. USD Strengthens After Kevin Warsh’s Fed Nomination
Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair triggered a sharp USD rebound. Warsh is viewed as:
• more hawkish,
• supportive of balance sheet reduction,
• less inclined toward aggressive rate cuts.
This shift boosted the dollar broadly and weighed on GBPUSD.
2. Additional USD Support from U.S. Data & Market Mood
Although ISM Manufacturing and shutdown-related political noise persisted, these were not the primary USD drivers; the Warsh nomination provided the major sentiment shift.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom
1. GBP Holds Uptrend but Faces USD Pressure
Despite repeated strength in recent weeks, the pound:
• was rejected at 1.3850,
• remains structurally bullish,
• but is struggling short term due to USD resurgence.
2. Lack of UK Catalysts
A quiet macroeconomic calendar in the UK leaves GBPUSD driven almost entirely by USD-side fundamentals.

2. Technical Analysis
Trend Structure
GBPUSD remains in a medium term ascending channel, but short term momentum has weakened.
Key developments:
• Strong resistance rejection at 1.3850,
• Price still respecting the previous breakout above 1.3680,
• Sellers active near major resistance zones.
Momentum Indicators
• RSI has rotated lower from overbought, supporting a pullback.
• A break beneath 1.3750 adds weight to the bearish correction.

Key Support Levels
The GBPUSD pair is currently supported by several important technical levels, which may act as barriers to further downside movement. Monitoring these levels is crucial for assessing the potential for a deeper correction or a resumption of the broader uptrend.
• 1.3625 – Main weekly support
1.3500 – Structural support
• 1.3475 – Expected correction target
• 1.3395 – Trend-break confirmation if lost

Key Resistance Levels
The GBPUSD pair is currently facing several significant resistance levels that may influence future price action. Understanding these levels is critical for evaluating potential upside scenarios and identifying key areas where momentum could shift.
• 1.3845 – 1.3850 - Primary resistance / rejection zone
• 1.3885 -Breakout confirmation level
• 1.3900- Momentum extension level

3. Trading Scenarios
✅ Bearish Scenario (Primary Expectation)
Trigger: Break and close below 1.3625
Downside Targets:
• 1.3475
• 1.3395
Why:
USD strength (Warsh effect) + technical rejection + overbought unwind.

⚠️ Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability short term)
Trigger: Clean break above 1.3850
Upside Targets:
• 1.3885
• 1.3900
• 1.4065 (weekly resistance extension)
Why:
GBP’s medium term uptrend is intact. If USD momentum fades, buyers could reclaim control quickly.

4. Market Sentiment
• USD Sentiment: Strengthening on hawkish expectations
• GBP Sentiment: Cautiously bullish but capped by USD strength
• Volatility: Elevated due to political and Fed related headlines
• Near term Bias: Bearish
• Medium term Bias: Uptrend intact