🔍 Fundamental Overview
GBP/USD opens the final week of November near 1.3170, pressured by weak UK fundamentals and cautious global sentiment. Sterling struggles to gain traction as growth stagnates and inflation remains sticky, while the dollar benefits from safe-haven flows and relatively high yields.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom:
• Growth: Q3 GDP flat at 0.0% QoQ; recession risks persist as consumer spending weakens.
• Inflation: October CPI eased to 3.4% YoY; core inflation remains elevated at 3.8%.
• BoE Outlook: BoE held rates at 4.50% in early November, signaling a prolonged pause. No cuts expected until mid-2026.
• Sentiment: PMIs point to contraction in manufacturing and services; labor market softening adds pressure on household incomes.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: After October’s 25 bps cut, Fed signals patience; December cut odds hover near 50%, but recent commentary leans cautious.
• Economic Data: This week brings U.S. GDP, core PCE, and durable goods — key for Fed’s next move.
• Risk Tone: Dollar demand supported by risk-off flows and relatively high U.S. yields despite easing bias.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 1.3150 – Psychological support
• 1.3120 – Weekly low zone
• 1.3080 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 1.3200 – Initial resistance
• 1.3235 – Weekly pivot
• 1.3250 – Bullish breakout trigger
Indicators:
• MACD: Bearish momentum persists; histogram widening slightly
• RSI: ~46 – Neutral, leaning bearish
• Stochastic: Recovering from oversold territory
• 50-day MA: Price remains below 1.3230; sustained close above 1.3250 needed for bullish reversal

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 1.3235 with confirmation
• Targets: 1.3250 ➡️ 1.3300
• Stop-Loss: Below 1.3120
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, risk-on sentiment, UK data surprises
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 1.3120
• Targets: 1.3080 ➡️ 1.3050
• Stop-Loss: Above 1.3235
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, hawkish Fed rhetoric, UK economic weakness