🔍 Fundamental Overview
USD/JPY enters the second week of February holding near elevated levels after strong multi-session gains in early February. The pair is reacting to Japanese political developments, U.S. yield fluctuations, and post-shutdown U.S. data congestion.

🇯🇵 Japan
• Political Drivers: The ruling LDP under PM Sanae Takaichi secured a historic two thirds lower house majority, boosting expectations for accommodative fiscal policy and reducing market uncertainty—supportive for yen stabilization but not enough to reverse weakness.
• Economic Tone: Japan’s economic outlook index rose to 50.1 from 49.5, reflecting improving non manufacturing activity even as labor conditions soften.
• Market Sentiment: Post election commentary and higher crude costs earlier in the week triggered yen selling, with USDJPY touching 157.34 before retreating.

🇺🇸 United States
• Macro Drivers: USD strengthened early in the week after strong ISM readings (manufacturing & services), though upside was later capped by rising jobless claims and weaker JOLTS job openings.
• Monetary Outlook: Interest rate differentials continue to favor the U.S., maintaining structural USD support—analysts highlight USDJPY as “buy on dips” due to sustained yield advantage.
• Data Compression: Due to the recent U.S. federal shutdown (Jan 30–Feb 3), critical employment and CPI data are compressed into this week, adding volatility catalysts.

Overall Fundamental Tone:
The balance of factors supports ongoing USD strength, while Japan’s political stability reduces extreme yen volatility but does not eliminate structural weakness. Traders remain focused on U.S. CPI (Feb 13) and NFP (postponed to Feb 11).

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels
• 156.45 — Key near-term support during corrective pullback
• 156.15 — Weekly support zone
• 155.05 — Deeper weekly support range bottom
Resistance Levels
• 157.35 — First major resistance repeatedly rejected last week
• 157.45 — Weekly resistance level
• 158.65 — Secondary resistance from intraday structure
Indicators
• Trend Structure: Price remains above long term EMA (EMA 285), holding a bullish medium term structure even amid correction.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Bouncing from overbought zone; aligns with bullish continuation potential.
• Short-Term Signals: Mixed SMA signals (SMA 20 sell, SMA 50/100 buy) but overall bias reads buy on Daily/Weekly.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup
• Entry: Above 156.75 (bullish breakout trigger)
• Targets:
   • 158.35 (RoboForex bullish projection)
   • 158.65 (secondary resistance)
• Stop Loss: Below 156.15
• Catalysts:
   • Strong U.S. yields / hot CPI
   • Post shutdown U.S. data beats
   • Continued risk on sentiment
• Rationale: Break above 156.75 confirms exit from corrective channel and restores directional bullish momentum.

❌ Bearish Setup
• Entry: Below 156.15
• Targets:
   • 155.35 (intraday support)
   • 155.05 (weekly demand zone)
• Stop Loss: Above 157.35
• Catalysts:
   • Weak U.S. CPI or NFP
   • Safe-haven yen inflows on geopolitical shocks
   • Sharp equity sell-off
• Rationale: A clear break below 156.15 signals deeper correction as buyers lose control of the bullish channel.