🔍 Fundamental Overview
🇯🇵 Japan
• Political developments support stability:
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi achieved a historic election victory, giving her a strong mandate for economic reforms aimed at shifting away from austerity toward demand side fiscal stimulus, including consumption tax cuts and investment programs. This reduces near term policy uncertainty and may soften JPY safe haven demand.
• JPY under pressure from yield differentials:
Despite improving political clarity, Japan maintains ultra low interest rates, keeping USD/JPY structurally biased toward the upside when U.S. yields rise.
🇺🇸 United States
• USD currently soft but structurally supported by rates:
Softer U.S. inflation (CPI falling to 2.4% YoY) has pressured the USD recently, but yield differentials continue to favor the dollar over the yen.
• Labor market remains strong:
The January NFP beat expectations with 130k jobs added, reinforcing the Fed’s view that the economy is resilient. Markets pushed expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut from June to July.
• Fed outlook:
Market participants anticipate 2–3 Fed rate cuts in 2026, but not before mid year — which maintains USD yield advantage relative to JPY.

📊 Technical Analysis
According to multi timeframe technical models, USDJPY is in a corrective phase but still biased higher.
Key Technical Observations
• Triangle correction pattern on H4 is limiting downside; sellers failed to break the lower boundary → buying pressure increasing.
• Bullish divergence on MACD signals downside exhaustion and possible upside reversal.
• USDJPY has been trading below short term moving averages, showing short term softness, but medium term trend support remains intact.
(153.40 → 152.59 → 153.15 rebound)
Support Levels
• 152.45 — Lower boundary of Triangle; break triggers deeper downside.
• 152.59 — Recent weekly low before rebound.
• 153.00 — Psychological and intraday structure support.
Resistance Levels
• 153.85 — First barrier; confirmation above strengthens bullish case.
• 154.65 — Primary weekly upside target via Triangle breakout.
• 156.11 / 155.12 — 50 day and 20 day SMAs acting as broader resistance zones.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
• Entry Trigger: Break and consolidation above 153.85
• Targets:
o 154.65 (Triangle breakout target)
o Extension toward 155.50–156.00 if momentum accelerates
• Stop Loss: Below 152.45
• Rationale:
MACD bullish divergence and failure of bears to break lower boundary suggest buyers regaining control. A move above the upper Triangle boundary confirms trend continuation.

❌ Bearish Scenario
• Entry Trigger: Break below 152.45
• Targets:
o 151.80
o 150.80 (extended target if USD weakness accelerates)
• Stop Loss: Above 153.85
• Rationale:
Only a confirmed breakdown below the Triangle invalidates the bullish structure and re opens a larger USDJPY correction.