1. Fundamental Analysis
🇯🇵 Japan
1. Coordinated Intervention Fears Hit USDJPY Hard
• USDJPY plunged to 153.89, its lowest level in over a month, as markets priced in a rising probability of joint US–Japan currency intervention.
• Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi reaffirmed readiness to act against “speculative FX moves,” fueling aggressive yen buying.
2. BoJ Meeting & Yen Reaction
• The BoJ left policy unchanged and revised inflation projections higher, which typically supports yen strength.
• However, Governor Ueda's press conference triggered volatility: USDJPY first broke above 159, then crashed sharply toward 157.50 shortly after.
3. Rate-Check Signals Add Fuel
• Reports that the New York Fed conducted “rate checks”—often a precursor to FX intervention—added further downside pressure on USDJPY.
🇺🇸 United States
1. USD Weakness Broadly Supporting JPY
• Rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty over possible shifts in US monetary leadership (Trump considering replacing Powell) weakened the dollar significantly, aiding yen strength.
2. Mixed Risk Sentiment
• While geopolitical tensions (Greenland dispute, Middle East concerns) created risk off flows into yen, stronger-than-expected US data insulated USDJPY from collapsing further.

2. Technical Analysis
Trend Structure
• A massive bearish break occurred this week: USDJPY broke the middle Bollinger Band, then the lower band, shifting the structure into a sharp downtrend.
• Before the drop, USDJPY was consolidating between 157.30–159.60, but the bearish impulse decisively broke that structure.
Momentum Indicators
• Large-bodied bearish candles confirm seller dominance.
• Price is trading outside the lower Bollinger Band, signaling extreme volatility and forced liquidation.

Key Support Levels
• 153.70 – 153.50 → Immediate support; break risks deeper downside
• 150.45 → Bearish extension target if 153 supports fail
Key Resistance Levels
• 155.50 – 155.80 → First resistance; price must reclaim to stabilize
• 159.75 → Bullish breakout confirmation level
• 158.00–158.50 → Heavy supply zone from MUFG flow data

3. Trading Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (Primary Expectation)
Trigger: Break below 153.70
Targets:
• 152.80
• 150.45 (deep extension)
Rationale:
Momentum strongly favors yen; intervention fear is suppressing upside, and structural breakdown confirms downside risk.

Bullish Rebound Scenario (Lower Probability)
Trigger: Close above 155.80
Targets:
• 158.00
• 159.75 (trend reversal trigger)
Rationale:
Even moderate USD recovery + intervention inaction could allow relief rallies. Markets have failed to stay below 158 for long in prior weeks, per DailyForex observations.

4. Market Sentiment
• JPY sentiment: Strongly bullish due to intervention risks, BoJ stance, political pressure, and rate check rumors.
• USD sentiment: Soft; geopolitics, leadership doubts, and risk aversion limit demand.
• Volatility: Very high — both verbal and potential actual intervention are driving uncertainty.
• Bias: Bearish unless USDJPY recaptures 155.50–156.00.