🔍 Technical Overview
Support Levels:
144.00–144.20: current intra-range support near the 50-day EMA
142.40: last week's low
141.00–141.50: deeper support zone
Resistance Levels:
145.44–145.50: last week's high/high of the current week
146.00: next technical resistance
148.00: long-term top/upper channel boundary
Indicators:
RSI around neutral (~50), indicating balanced momentum
Price remains above the 50-day EMA, signaling a mild bullish bias
Formation of a consolidation pattern within 142.6–145.4 — potential breakout zone
📰 Fundamental Highlights
Safe-Haven USD Strength: U.S. dollar strengthened amid Israel–Iran tensions and ahead of the Fed decision; yen also viewed as a refuge currency.
Mixed U.S. Data: Weak retail sales but strong wage growth supported USD traction and near-term yield differentials.
BOJ Holds Steady: Japan’s central bank maintained policy, slowing bond tapering — modestly supporting yen.
📅 Key Events This Week
June 18 (Wed) – U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
June 19 (Thu) – Bank of Japan policy statement and possible revisions.
June 20 (Fri) – U.S. Retail Sales & Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
📌 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Scenario (Long Bias)
Hold above 144.00 — target range 145.44–146.00
Break above 145.50 could spur momentum toward 148.00
Bearish Scenario (Bearish Risk)
Confirm break below 144.00 — risk targets 142.40, then 141.00
Watch for a close below 142.40 to open deeper moves