🔍 Fundamental Overview
USD/JPY started November on a softer note as the dollar consolidates after the Fed’s October rate cut, while yen demand is supported by safe-haven flows amid global risk uncertainty. However, BoJ’s ultra-loose stance continues to limit yen strength.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Oct 29, signaling a pause before further easing. Odds of a December cut now ~50%.
• Economic Data: Inflation at 3.0% YoY; labor market softening with job growth slowing. Shutdown delays key data releases, adding uncertainty.
• Risk Sentiment: Dollar demand supported by cautious tone and relatively high yields despite easing bias.
🇯🇵 Japan:
• Economic Data: Q3 GDP contracted 0.1% QoQ, reflecting weak domestic demand; industrial output fell for the second month.
• Inflation: CPI at 2.4% YoY, still above BoJ’s 2% target but moderating.
• BoJ Policy: BoJ maintained ultra-loose stance, reaffirming yield curve control; no immediate tightening expected.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 148.20 – Key structural support
• 147.80 – Short-term floor
• 147.00 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 149.80 – Initial resistance
• 150.60 – Weekly pivot
• 151.20 – Bullish extension target
Indicators:
• MACD: Bearish crossover forming; momentum slowing
• RSI: ~44 – Neutral, leaning bearish
• Stochastic: Approaching oversold territory
• 50-day MA: Price below 149.50; sustained close above 150.60 needed for bullish reversal

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 150.60 with confirmation
• Targets: 151.20 ➡️ 152.00
• Stop-Loss: Below 148.20
• Catalysts: Risk-on sentiment, strong U.S. data, BoJ dovish tone
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 148.20
• Targets: 147.80 ➡️ 147.00
• Stop-Loss: Above 150.60
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, weaker U.S. yields, safe-haven yen demand