Fundamental Overview
The USDJPY pair enters the first week of September influenced by diverging monetary policies and macroeconomic data from both the United States and Japan.
United States
• Fed Policy Outlook: Markets are focused on the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and inflation data, which will likely impact expectations for the next rate cut cycle. Persistent high US Treasury yields continue to support the dollar.
• Risk Sentiment: The dollar maintains its strength on safe-haven demand; however, any dovish signals from the Federal Reserve could trigger a market correction.
Japan
• BoJ Stance: The Bank of Japan continues its soft monetary policy, though recent comments suggest a gradual move toward normalization. Verbal interventions from the Ministry of Finance present a risk for short-term volatility.
• Safe-Haven Dynamics: Should global risks intensify, such as a slowdown in China or oil price volatility, the yen could appreciate as investors seek safe-haven assets.
Technical Analysis
Key Support Levels
• 146.50 – Near-term support and SMA50 zone
• 144.33 – Lower boundary of the current consolidation
• 143.35 – Critical support; a break below this level would confirm a bearish continuation
• 136.95 – Extended bearish target
Key Resistance Levels
• 147.55 – Short-term resistance; possible target for bullish correction
• 148.77 – Upper boundary of the current range
• 150.80 – Breakout level signaling bullish continuation
• 153.25 – Extended bullish wave target
Indicator Insights
• Price is consolidating around 147.50, moving within a range of 146.20 to 148.77.
• RSI is testing the descending trend line, indicating ongoing bearish pressure.
• MACD confirms negative momentum, supporting a short-term downside view.
Trading Scenarios
Bullish Setup (Main Scenario)
• Entry: Above 148.00 with volume confirmation
• Targets: 150.80, then 153.15
• Stop-Loss: Below 146.50
• Catalysts: Strong US data, hawkish tone from the Fed, continued dovish stance from the BoJ
Bearish Setup (Alternative Scenario)
• Entry: Below 146.50
• Targets: 144.33, then 143.35, and 136.95
• Stop-Loss: Above 148.00
• Catalysts: Weak US data, global risk-off sentiment, increased demand for the yen as a safe-haven