Weekly Analysis List
USD/JPY Weekly Analysis
4/21/25
Market Overview
As of April 21, 2025, the USD/JPY currency pair is exhibiting a bearish trend, influenced by a combination of technical patterns and macroeconomic factors.
Technical Overview
The USD/JPY pair has recently broken below key support levels, signaling potential for further declines.
• Support Break: The pair breached the 142.00 support level, which had previously acted as a foundation for upward movements since September. This break aligns with the continuation of an impulse wave, suggesting increased downward momentum.
• Current Levels: The pair has reached lows around 141.60, marking the weakest point in seven months.
• Short-Term Correction: A minor corrective rebound is possible, potentially testing resistance near 141.50. However, if selling pressure persists, the pair may decline directly toward 140.00 without significant retracement.
Fundamental Drivers
Several macroeconomic factors are contributing to the USD/JPY's current trajectory:
• Risk Aversion: Global investors are exhibiting risk-averse behavior, leading to increased demand for the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven asset. This sentiment is overshadowing traditional influences like interest rate differentials.
• Economic Indicators: Weakness in U.S. economic data, such as the Leading Economic Index (LEI), is undermining confidence in the U.S. dollar, further pressuring the USD/JPY pair.
Conclusion
Weekly Outlook (April 21–25, 2025)
Analysts anticipate the following movements for the USD/JPY pair in the current week:
• Potential Rebound: A short-term correction might see the pair testing resistance around 141.50.
• Continued Decline: If the bearish momentum persists, the pair could fall below 138.25. A decisive break below 139.35 would reinforce the bearish outlook.
• Long-Term Targets: Some projections suggest that, barring a significant reversal, the pair could descend toward 131.15 in the coming weeks.
Key Levels to Monitor
• Support: 139.55, 138.25, 131.15
• Resistance: 141.50, 141.75, 142.75
A sustained move above 142.75 would challenge the current bearish trend, while a drop below 139.35 would confirm continued downside potential.
In summary, the USD/JPY pair is under bearish pressure due to technical breakdowns and a shift in investor sentiment toward risk aversion. Traders should remain vigilant for potential short-term corrections but be prepared for further declines if key support levels fail to hold.