🔍 Fundamental Overview
USD/JPY started the week under pressure after hitting multi-month highs earlier in October. Political developments in Japan and U.S. macro uncertainty are shaping the pair’s trajectory.
🇯🇵 Japan:
• Political Landscape: Sanae Takaichi’s confirmation as Prime Minister signals continued fiscal stimulus and accommodative policy, weakening yen expectations.
• BoJ Stance: Governor Ueda reiterated caution on rate hikes, reinforcing dovish bias.
• Economic Data: Industrial output remains weak; trade deficit persists, adding structural pressure on JPY.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: Markets price in a high probability (>95%) of an October rate cut amid stagnant industrial production and government shutdown concerns.
• Risk Sentiment: Easing U.S.-Japan trade tensions and fading banking fears reduce safe-haven demand for yen.
• Macro Signals: Industrial production flat at 0.1%; uncertainty over fiscal negotiations weighs on USD upside.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 150.70 – near-term support
• 149.20 – key correction target
• 147.00 – extended downside
Resistance Levels:
• 153.00 – breakout trigger
• 156.30 – bullish extension target
Indicators:
• Price Action: Shooting Star reversal on H4 chart suggests short-term correction toward 149.20.
• RSI: Near overbought zone, signaling potential pullback.
• Trend: Still within an upward channel; bullish structure intact above 150.70.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 153.00 after consolidation
• Targets: 156.30
• Stop-Loss: Below 152.00
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, BoJ policy continuity, risk-on flows
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 150.70
• Targets: 149.20 ➡️ 147.00
• Stop-Loss: Above 152.00
• Catalysts: Strong yen buying on risk-off, unexpected BoJ hawkish signals