🔍 Fundamental Overview
USD/JPY enters the final week of September with mixed momentum. The Fed’s recent rate cut initially pressured the dollar, but strong U.S. data and persistent yen weakness helped the pair recover. The BoJ held rates steady, but internal debate over future tightening is intensifying.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Rate Outlook: 25bps cut delivered on 17 Sept; Powell signals caution on further easing.
• Economic Data: Stronger-than-expected retail sales and durable goods orders supported USD.
• Dollar Sentiment: Rebounded post-FOMC, supported by risk-on flows and yield differentials.
🇯🇵 Japan:
• BoJ Policy: Rates unchanged; internal discussions on potential hikes continue.
• Political Factors: LDP leadership election adds uncertainty.
• Yen Sentiment: Weakness persists amid low yields and lack of policy action.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 147.50 – short-term support
• 146.50 – post-FOMC low
• 145.50 – key weekly base
Resistance Levels:
• 148.18 – supply zone ceiling
• 149.00 – breakout level
• 149.50 – medium-term resistance
Indicators:
• MACD: Flat – no clear momentum
• Stochastic: Neutral
• RSI: 54 – slightly bullish
• EMA50/200: Price hovering near both; trend indecisive

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 148.20 with confirmation
• Targets: 149.00 ➡️ 149.50
• Stop-Loss: Below 147.50
• Catalysts: Strong U.S. data, persistent yen weakness, risk-on sentiment
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 146.50
• Targets: 145.50 ➡️ 144.80
• Stop-Loss: Above 148.20
• Catalysts: Hawkish BoJ surprise, risk-off flows, USD correction