🔍 Fundamental Overview
USDJPY enters March trading with a mix of USD supportive fundamentals and JPY weakening macro dynamics, keeping the pair elevated near multi week highs.

🇺🇸 United States Drivers (USD Side)
1. Fed Expected to Hold Rates Until June
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain rates unchanged until at least mid year, supported by resilient U.S. labor data and sticky inflation pressures.
Impact: Supports the USD via stable yield expectations.
2. U.S. Tariff Policy Uncertainty Boosts USD Demand
The U.S. administration is considering global tariffs up to 15%, adding risk off flows favoring the dollar.
3. Risk Sentiment Still Fragile
Geopolitical tensions—particularly involving Iran and the Middle East—continue to keep USD attractive as a safe haven asset, even when not directly cited in USDJPY flows (significant for overall USD strength).
🇯🇵 Japan Drivers (JPY Side)
1. Lack of Immediate BOJ Tightening
Japan's economic releases do not suggest imminent policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. FreshForex notes the yen struggles to gain lasting support, as the market believes BOJ would move slowly even if economic conditions improve.
2. Japanese Holiday Limits Domestic Volume
On Feb 23 (start of week), Japan’s national holiday reduced local participation, reinforcing USD driven flows.
3. Yen Structurally Weak on Rate Differential
Wide yield spreads between U.S. and Japan keep JPY fundamentally weak—a long standing driver of USDJPY’s bullish bias.

📊 Technical Analysis
Technical conditions favor a continuation of the medium term uptrend, though the pair is positioned for a short term correction before resuming upside.
Market Structure
• USDJPY trades in a bullish channel, with price firmly above major moving averages.
• The pair broke above key signal lines, signaling continuing buyer pressure.
Support Levels
• 153.75 — Primary correction support for the week.
• 153.98 / 153.63 — Intraday S1/S2 supports.
• 148.65 — Trend invalidation level; break cancels the bullish scenario.
Resistance Levels
• 154.92 / 155.27 — Intraday R1/R2 resistances.
• 158.05 — Key breakout level confirming renewed bullish continuation.
• 163.65 — Extended target if bullish momentum accelerates.
Indicators
• RSI: Trending near a support trendline—suggesting potential bullish rebound.
• MACD: Mixed signals (“Buy” on daily, “Sell” on weekly), indicating consolidation before next impulse.
• MA Signals:
o SMA 20 → Sell
o SMA 50 → Buy
o SMA 100 → Sell
Reflecting a short term squeeze within a broader uptrend.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias)
• Entry: Break and close above 158.05
• Targets:
o 160.00
o 163.65
• Stop Loss: Below 153.75
• Rationale:
Confirmation of breakout above Triangle resistance and channel continuation.

❌ Bearish Scenario (Risk Scenario)
• Entry: Break below 153.75 support
• Targets:
o 152.25
o 148.65 (invalidation level)
• Stop Loss: Above 155.50
• Rationale:
A breakdown would signal deeper correction, though unlikely unless USD weakens sharply.