🔍 Fundamental Overview
USD/JPY remains elevated near multi-decade highs, driven by interest rate differentials and safe-haven flows. However, signs of correction emerged last week as profit-taking and intervention risks from Japan’s Ministry of Finance increased.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Rate Outlook: Markets price in a high probability of rate cuts by year-end despite strong GDP and employment data.
• Government Shutdown: Continues to delay key macro releases.
• Dollar Sentiment: Supported by safe-haven demand, but facing pressure from policy uncertainty.
🇯🇵 Japan:
• BoJ Policy: Remains ultra-loose, but verbal intervention risks are rising.
• Political Signals: Yen weakness is drawing criticism, increasing likelihood of direct action.
• Intervention Watch: ¥152.00–152.50 seen as critical zone for potential MoF action.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 149.45 – key short-term support
• 148.80 – corrective target
• 147.30 – deeper retracement zone
Resistance Levels:
• 152.30 – breakout level
• 152.80 – extended bullish target
• 153.40 – long-term resistance
Indicators:
• MACD: Bullish but flattening
• Alligator: Lines converging – signals slowing momentum
• RSI: ~61 – still in bullish territory
• 50-day MA: Price remains above – trend intact

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 152.30
• Targets: 152.80 ➡️ 153.40
• Stop-Loss: Below 150.70
• Catalysts: Continued Fed hawkishness, BoJ inaction, risk-on sentiment
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 149.45
• Targets: 148.80 ➡️ 147.30
• Stop-Loss: Above 152.30
• Catalysts: Japanese intervention, weak U.S. data, risk-off flows