🔍 1. Fundamental Overview
USDJPY enters the week supported by broad USD strength, geopolitical tensions, and persistent yield differentials favoring the U.S.

🇺🇸 United States: USD Strength Dominates
1. Middle East Conflict Boosts Safe-Haven USD
The U.S.–Israel military operations and Iran’s retaliatory drone/missile strikes continue to elevate geopolitical risk.
• Safe haven flows boosted the USD across G10 currencies.
2. Higher Oil Prices Lifting USDJPY
Rising crude prices (due to conflict driven supply concerns) tend to support USDJPY since Japan is a major energy importer:
• MUFG notes USDJPY rose mid week driven by oil price increases.
3. Fed Policy Expectations: Cuts Delayed
Markets now expect the first Fed rate cut no earlier than September–October, not July.
• This delay supports U.S. yields → strengthens the USD.
🇯🇵 Japan: Yen Remains Structurally Weak
1. BOJ Policy Still Ultra Loose
Japan’s yields remain extremely low relative to U.S. yields. No new BOJ tightening signals surfaced this week.
2. Weak Relative Fundamentals
MUFG notes the yen remained under pressure throughout the week as the USD benefited from safe haven demand.
Impact:
→ Yield differential remains one of the strongest USDJPY upside drivers.

📊 2. Technical Analysis
Multiple sources confirm that USDJPY remains in a bullish trend, though a pullback early in the week is expected.
Key Levels
• Support: 157.15, 156.45
• Resistance: 159.45, 161.565
Weekly Structure
• The pair is in a confirmed bullish trend, with price above signal lines.
• Expected pattern:
1. Pullback toward 155.35
2. Rebound → continuation above 164.85
Weekly Recap
• USDJPY reached 159.45 on Mar 13, the highest since July 2024.
• Support formed near 157.26 during the temporary correction.
Momentum
• Technical indicators show Strong Buy across daily and weekly timeframes.
o RSI (14): 62.96 (bullish)
o MACD: Buy
o Moving averages: 10 out of 12 = Buy signals

📈 3. Trading Scenarios
A) Bullish Scenario (Primary)
Why: Strong USD, risk-off flows, oil-driven yen weakness, bullish technicals.
• Entry: Buy dips toward 155.35–156.45
• Targets:
o 159.45
o 160.85
o 164.85 (extension)
• Stop: Below 152.65 (trend invalidation) [forex24.pro]
Justification:
Analyst explicitly forecasts a correction to 155.35 followed by renewed bullish continuation beyond 164.85.

B) Bearish Scenario (Low Probability / Pullback Trade)
Why: Expected early-week correction; yen may briefly strengthen on profit-taking or intervention chatter.
• Entry: Sell only if 157.15 breaks
• Targets:
o 156.45
o 155.35
• Stop: Above 159.45
Invalidation:
A break below 152.65 signals a deeper reversal (per FOREX24.PRO).

🧠 4. Market Sentiment Summary
• USDJPY remains heavily bullish, supported by interest rate spreads and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Short-term correction is likely, but medium term upward continuation is the dominant outlook.
• Risks:
o BOJ surprise comment or intervention hint
o Sharp de-escalation in Middle East conflict
o A sudden USD selloff
However, none of these risks currently show strong evidence in the data.