🔍 Fundamental Overview
USD/JPY enters the second week of November holding near the 150 handle as diverging monetary policies between the Fed and Bank of Japan (BoJ) continue to dominate sentiment. The yen remains pressured by ultra-loose BoJ policy, while the dollar benefits from safe-haven flows and relatively high U.S. yields.
🇯🇵 Japan:
• Growth: Q3 GDP contracted by -0.1% QoQ, signaling fragile domestic demand.
• Inflation: October CPI at 2.6% YoY, slightly above BoJ’s target, but policymakers maintain accommodative stance.
• BoJ Outlook: BoJ kept rates at -0.10% and reaffirmed yield curve control; no tightening expected in 2025.
• Sentiment: Weak consumer confidence and sluggish exports weigh on yen outlook.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: Fed’s October 25 bps cut to 3.75%-4.00% continues to shape expectations; December cut odds near 50%, but recent Fed commentary leans cautious.
• Economic Data: Inflation steady at 3.0% YoY; labor market cooling. Shutdown delays key data releases, adding uncertainty.
• Risk Tone: Dollar demand supported by risk-off flows and relatively high yields despite easing bias.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 149.20 – Initial support
• 148.50 – Weekly low zone
• 147.80 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 150.50 – Psychological barrier
• 151.00 – Weekly pivot
• 151.20 – Bullish breakout trigger
Indicators:
• MACD: Bullish momentum intact; histogram widening
• RSI: ~58 – Neutral-to-bullish
• Stochastic: Approaching overbought territory
• 50-day MA: Price above 149.50; sustained close above 151.00 confirms bullish continuation

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 151.00 with confirmation
• Targets: 151.20 ➡️ 152.00
• Stop-Loss: Below 149.20
• Catalysts: Risk-off flows, BoJ dovish stance, strong U.S. yields
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 149.20
• Targets: 148.50 ➡️ 147.80
• Stop-Loss: Above 151.00
• Catalysts: Fed hawkish surprise, risk-on sentiment, intervention chatter from Japan