🔍 Technical Overview
Support Levels:
• 143.00–143.30: Intraday and swing low support
• 142.11–142.68: 4-week low zone
• 141.00–142.00: Deeper support range if weakness continues
Resistance Levels:
• 144.50–145.00: Initial resistance band (20/50 SMA confluence)
• 145.90: Recent weekly high
• 146.30–148.00: Higher resistance aligned with 100‑day SMA and June highs
Indicators:
• RSI: Neutral-slightly bearish
• EMA Positioning: Close to 50-day average; staying above suggests mild bullish bias
📰 Fundamental Highlights
• Weak Yen: Weakened amid hedge fund unwinds and summer trading backdrop
• Fed Strength: Boosted USD due to robust U.S. labor data and hawkish comments from Fed Chief Powell
• BoJ & Yield Differential: Japan's ultra-easy monetary policy contrasts with the tight Fed stance, maintaining USD/JPY upside
📅 Key Events This Week
• July 2 (Wed): U.S. ADP Employment Report
• July 3 (Thu): Initial Jobless Claims (U.S.)
• July 4 (Fri): U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
📌 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
🔼 Bullish Case: Holding above 143.00, targeting 144.50–145.00; breaking above 145.00–145.90 may push toward 146.30–148.00
🔽 Bearish Scenario: Failing to stay above 143.00 could trigger a slide toward 142.11–142.68; breaching below 142.00 might open room toward 141.00