🔍 Fundamental Overview
USD/JPY surged past the 150.00 psychological level following political developments in Japan and continued strength in the U.S. dollar. The election of Japan’s first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, has triggered expectations of fiscal stimulus and prolonged monetary easing, weakening the yen.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Outlook: Dovish expectations persist amid labor market risks and delayed data due to the government shutdown.
• Dollar Strength: Supported by rising Treasury yields and safe-haven demand.
• Political Risk: Shutdown continues, limiting key data releases like NFP and CPI.
🇯🇵 Japan:
• Political Shift: Takaichi’s victory boosts expectations of stimulus and continued BoJ easing.
• Bond Market: Long-term JGB yields rose, but not enough to support the yen.
• BoJ Outlook: No immediate tightening expected; rate hike possible in early 2026 if wage growth improves.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 149.50 – short-term support
• 148.30 – breakout base
• 147.00 – trendline support
Resistance Levels:
• 151.75 – breakout level
• 153.00 – wave extension target
• 153.65 – long-term resistance
Indicators:
• MACD: Bullish continuation
• RSI: Testing overbought zone
• Bollinger Bands: Expanding – volatility rising
• Pattern: Hammer reversal on H4 chart; breakout from ascending channel

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 151.75
• Targets: 153.00 ➡️ 153.65
• Stop-Loss: Below 149.50
• Catalysts: Political stimulus in Japan, Fed dovish tone, strong USD
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 149.50
• Targets: 148.30 ➡️ 147.00
• Stop-Loss: Above 151.75
• Catalysts: BoJ surprise tightening, USD correction, risk-off flows