
Weekly Analysis List
USD/JPY Weekly Analysis
7/7/25

Market Overview
💴 USD/JPY Weekly Analysis (July 7–11, 2025)
📊 Market Snapshot
• Current Price (July 7 close): ≈ 145.47 JPY per USD
• Last Week’s Range: 142.72 – 145.48
• Weekly Performance: After hitting a four-week low near 142.72 on July 1, the pair rebounded strongly midweek on positive U.S. data and relief in trade sentiment
🔍 Technical Overview
• Support Levels:
o 143.30 – 143.80: Daily intraday support and prior correction lows
o 142.44 – 142.72: Zone of the recent swing low
o 141.40: MACD line region that would shift broader trend if breached
• Resistance Levels:
o 145.25 – 145.33: Resistance zone noted in FX.co and FXStreet forecasting
o 145.90 – 146.00: Last week’s high and psychological level
o 149.75+: Upper boundary—breakout above would confirm bullish reversal
• Indicators:
o EMA/RSI: Price is supported by 50 day EMA with RSI turning positive, indicating short-term bullish bias
o Momentum Signal: Marlin oscillator suggests possible continued pullback to 143.77, but MACD consolidation confirms still bullish structure
📰 Fundamental Highlights
• U.S. Data Boost: Strong labor and economic reports lifted USD and softened downtrend from early week lows
• Trade-War Pressure: Tariff headlines and yen strength from trade dealings created mixed flows
• BoJ vs Fed Divergence: Bank of Japan remains dovish while Fed keeps its stance firm, maintaining upward pressure on USD/JPY
📅 Key Events to Watch
• Tuesday (July 8) – Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index
• Thursday (July 10) – U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
• Friday (July 11) – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
📌 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
🔼 Bullish View (Base Case)
• Hold above 143.80, targeting resistance at 145.25–145.33
• A confirmed breakout above 145.90 could trigger a rise toward 149.75+
🔽 Bearish Scenario
• A breakdown below 143.30 could lead to retests of 142.44–142.72
• A decisive drop under 142.00–141.40 would indicate a shift to bearish trend
Conclusion
💡 Trader Tip
“USD/JPY rebounded off early-week lows by leaning on its 50 day EMA—momentum is tilting slightly bullish. Watch key supports at 143.30–143.80 and resistance at 145.25–145.90. The U.S. NFP will likely determine whether bulls remain in control.”