🔍 Fundamental Overview
USD/JPY traded with a softer tone last week as the Fed’s rate cut and cautious forward guidance weighed on the dollar, while yen demand improved slightly on safe-haven flows amid global equity volatility.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Oct 29, signaling a pause before further easing. December cut odds now ~50%.
• Economic Data: Inflation eased to 3.0% YoY, while labor market indicators softened; ADP jobs and housing data disappointed.
• Risk Sentiment: Dollar demand tempered by dovish Fed tone and lower Treasury yields, though geopolitical uncertainty limits downside.
🇯🇵 Japan:
• Economic Data: Q3 GDP contracted 0.1% QoQ, reflecting weak domestic demand; industrial output fell for the second month.
• Inflation: CPI at 2.4% YoY, still above BoJ’s 2% target but moderating.
• BoJ Policy: BoJ maintained ultra-loose stance, reaffirming yield curve control; no immediate tightening expected.
• Market Dynamics: Yen gains capped by persistent rate differentials, but safe-haven flows provide intermittent support.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 148.80 – Initial support
• 148.20 – Key structural floor
• 147.00 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 150.60 – Breakout trigger
• 151.60 – Weekly pivot
• 152.20 – Bullish extension target
Indicators:
• MACD: Bearish crossover forming; momentum slowing
• RSI: ~46 – Neutral, leaning bearish
• Stochastic: Approaching oversold territory
• 50-day MA: Price hovering near 150.00; sustained close below 149.00 signals bearish continuation

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 150.60 with confirmation
• Targets: 151.60 ➡️ 152.20
• Stop-Loss: Below 148.80
• Catalysts: Risk-on sentiment, strong U.S. data, BoJ dovish tone
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 148.80
• Targets: 148.20 ➡️ 147.00
• Stop-Loss: Above 150.60
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone, weaker U.S. yields, safe-haven yen demand