🔍 Fundamental Overview
🇺🇸 United States (USD Side)
• USD remains supported by higher for longer rate expectations:
Investors believe U.S. interest rates may stay elevated, reinforcing demand for the dollar and weighing on JPY.
• Rate differential remains key:
The large gap between U.S.–Japan interest rates continues to favor long USD/JPY positions.
• Tariff uncertainty adds volatility:
Markets are digesting Trump’s 15% global tariff order, which has created oscillating risk sentiment across FX.
🇯🇵 Japan (JPY Side)
• BOJ signals remain cautious:
Despite improvement in some Japanese economic figures, the market does not expect sharp policy adjustments soon — limiting yen’s ability to strengthen.
• Holiday reduced Japanese flows:
Japan had a national holiday on Feb 23, limiting domestic participation and leaving USDJPY more reactive to U.S. drivers.

📊 Technical Analysis
The medium term trend remains bullish, with recent price action forming a correction inside a larger uptrend.
Key Chart Structure
• Prices have broken above major moving average signal lines, confirming bullish pressure.
• The pair is trading inside a bullish channel, with potential support at the lower boundary.
• A Triangle pattern’s upper boundary aligns with resistance near 158.05.
Support Levels
• 153.75 — Main corrective support (expected test before any renewed rise).
• 153.98 / 153.63 — S1 & S2 intraday supports from Fortrade.
• 148.65 — Deep invalidation level; break cancels medium term uptrend.
Resistance Levels
• 155.27 / 154.92 — Immediate intraday resistance (Daily R2/R1).
• 158.05 — Breakout confirmation level, signals bullish continuation.
• 163.65 — Extended bullish target if upside resumes strongly.
Indicators
• RSI trendline bounce supports bullish continuation.
• MACD shows mixed signals (buy on daily, sell on weekly), indicating consolidation before a directional move.
• SMA mix:
o SMA 20 → Sell
o SMA 50 → Buy
o SMA 100 → Sell
(reflecting short term indecision inside broader uptrend)

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
• Entry: Break above 158.05
• Targets:
o 160.00 (psychological)
o 163.65 (weekly projection)
• Stop Loss: Below 153.75
• Rationale:
A breakout above 158.05 confirms continuation of the bullish channel and Triangle pattern. RSI and moving averages support the medium term uptrend.

❌ Bearish Scenario
• Entry: Break below 153.75
• Targets:
o 152.25
o 148.65 (trend invalidation)
• Stop Loss: Above 155.50
• Rationale:
Breaking 153.75 confirms short term corrective pressure and opens a path toward deeper supports. A fall below 148.65 cancels the broader bullish trend entirely.