Technical Overview
Support Levels:
• 147.10–147.35: This zone serves as a soft floor, defined by the recent trading cap and the bottom of the current range.
• 146.85: Key weekly support, which was tested during the previous week’s trading sessions.
Resistance Levels:
• 148.00–148.10: This range acts as the primary resistance cap, consistently limiting any upward moves.
• 151.45: This is the next major upside target if the immediate resistance is decisively breached.
Momentum Indicators:
Trading averages and price action currently reflect sideways movement, confirming the absence of a clear trend.
The daily “golden cross” formation supports a bullish long-term outlook, though short-term momentum remains muted.
Fundamental Highlights
USD/JPY is largely in a holding pattern as markets await key U.S. CPI inflation data, which is expected to provide a directional catalyst. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains on the sidelines, with no significant policy changes, while markets are also anticipating possible rate cuts from the Federal Reserve—both of which could influence the direction of the currency pair.
Weekly Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Scenario
• Trigger: A daily close above 148.10
• Target 1: 149.00
• Target 2: 151.45
Note: A sustained break above 148.10 could initiate a move higher toward the long-term resistance zone.
Bearish Scenario
• Trigger: A close below 147.10
• Target 1: 146.00
• Target 2: 144.70 – 141.70
Note: A break below 147.10 may open the door for a deeper pullback, potentially targeting lower support zones.