🔍 Fundamental Overview
USD/JPY starts the final week of November near 154.10, holding firm as policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ continues to dominate sentiment. The yen remains pressured by ultra-loose BoJ policy, while the dollar benefits from safe-haven flows and relatively high U.S. yields.
🇯🇵 Japan:
• Growth: Q3 GDP contracted by -0.1% QoQ, signaling fragile domestic demand.
• Inflation: October CPI at 2.6% YoY, slightly above BoJ’s target, but policymakers maintain accommodative stance.
• BoJ Outlook: BoJ kept rates at -0.10% and reaffirmed yield curve control; no tightening expected in 2025.
• Sentiment: Weak consumer confidence and sluggish exports weigh on yen outlook.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: After October’s 25 bps cut, Fed signals patience; December cut odds hover near 50%, but recent Fed commentary leans cautious.
• Economic Data: This week brings U.S. GDP, core PCE, and durable goods — key for Fed’s next move.
• Risk Tone: Dollar demand supported by risk-off flows and relatively high yields despite easing bias.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 153.80 – Initial support
• 153.50 – Weekly low zone
• 152.80 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 154.50 – Psychological barrier
• 155.00 – Weekly pivot
• 155.30 – Bullish breakout trigger
Indicators:
• MACD: Bullish momentum intact; histogram widening
• RSI: ~58 – Neutral-to-bullish
• Stochastic: Approaching overbought territory
• 50-day MA: Price above 153.80; sustained close above 155.00 confirms bullish continuation

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 155.00 with confirmation
• Targets: 155.30 ➡️ 156.00
• Stop-Loss: Below 153.50
• Catalysts: Risk-off flows, BoJ dovish stance, strong U.S. yields
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 153.50
• Targets: 152.80 ➡️ 152.00
• Stop-Loss: Above 155.00
• Catalysts: Fed hawkish surprise, risk-on sentiment, intervention chatter from Japan