🔍 Fundamental Overview
USD/JPY remains under pressure as BoJ hawkish expectations collide with Fed easing signals, narrowing the yield differential and boosting yen demand.
🇯🇵 Japan:
• BoJ Outlook: Markets price a high probability of a rate hike by January; Governor Ueda reiterates inflation persistence and wage growth stability.
• Data: Tokyo CPI ~2.8% YoY; manufacturing PMI below 50, signaling contraction. JGB yields remain elevated (~1.87%), reinforcing hawkish tone.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Policy: December FOMC expected to deliver a 25 bps cut; Powell’s guidance will shape 2026 outlook.
• Data: ISM PMI weak, labor market softening, PCE inflation still near 3%. Dollar sentiment fragile as real yields decline.
• Risk Tone: Dollar demand fades amid dovish Fed bets and risk-on flows.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 154.00 – Near-term support
• 153.00 – Weekly low zone
• 151.90 – Extended downside target
Resistance Levels:
• 155.50 – Initial resistance
• 156.50 – Weekly pivot
• 158.00 – Bullish breakout trigger
Indicators:
• MACD: Bearish momentum persists; histogram negative
• RSI: ~45 – Neutral, leaning bearish
• Stochastic: Oversold zone; risk of short-term corrective bounce
• 50-day MA: Price below trendline; sustained close under 154.00 confirms bearish bias

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 155.50 with confirmation
• Targets: 156.50 ➡️ 158.00
• Stop-Loss: Below 154.00
• Catalysts: Fed dovish tone triggers risk-on sentiment, BoJ delays hike
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 154.00
• Targets: 153.00 ➡️ 151.90
• Stop-Loss: Above 155.50
• Catalysts: BoJ hawkish signals, strong JGB yields, Fed cut accelerates USD weakness