Weekly Analysis List
XAU/USD Weekly Analysis
9/1/25
Market Overview
XAUUSD Weekly Market Analysis: 01–05 September 2025
Overview
The following analysis provides a comprehensive review of the Gold vs US Dollar (XAU/USD) market for the week of 01–05 September 2025. The current price range is approximately $3,390–$3,476, with a clear bullish trend bias. Expectations for the period suggest a trading range between $3,350 and $3,500 or higher.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold enters September with robust bullish momentum, driven by several key macroeconomic and geopolitical factors:
• Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September has increased to 89%, up from 82% the previous week. This dovish sentiment is reinforced by statements from Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams, who have echoed Chair Powell’s signals from Jackson Hole.
• Political Uncertainty in the US: President Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Board member Lisa Cook has raised concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve. This situation has contributed to heightened market volatility and a greater demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• Asian Demand: Physical demand from Asia remains strong, as evidenced by a 126.8% month-over-month increase in net gold imports to China via Hong Kong in July. China’s position as the world’s leading gold consumer continues to support the market.
• De-dollarization & Central Bank Buying: Central banks globally purchased more than 244 metric tons of gold in Q1 2025, providing structural support for gold amid ongoing shifts in global monetary policy.
Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• $3,350 – Primary psychological and technical support
• $3,283 – Secondary support
• $3,245 – Deeper correction zone
• $3,245–$2,875 – Extended bearish targets if a breakdown occurs
Resistance Levels:
• $3,416 – Short-term resistance
• $3,439 – Breakout level
• $3,500 – Psychological barrier
• $3,514–$3,700 – Medium-term bullish targets
Indicators Summary:
RSI (14): 72.15 – Indicates bullish momentum
MACD (12,26): Positive – Generates a buy signal
CCI (14): 212.76 – Overbought conditions
ADX (14): 47.33 – Strong trend presence
Moving Averages (MA5–MA200): All signal a strong buy
Trading Scenarios
Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above $3,439
• Targets: $3,500, then $3,514, and $3,700
• Stop-Loss: Below $3,350
• Catalysts: Fed rate cut, geopolitical tensions, and strong Asian demand
Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below $3,350
• Targets: $3,283, then $3,245, and $2,875
• Stop-Loss: Above $3,390
• Catalysts: Hawkish Fed tone, rising bond yields, and equity market rally
Conclusion
Market Sentiment
Gold is currently consolidating in a sideways-to-bullish phase, trading between $3,350 and $3,439. A breakout above $3,439 is likely to trigger a move toward $3,500 and potentially higher levels. The market is underpinned by expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve, political instability, and strong physical demand. However, resistance comes from rising equity indices and a decrease in overall market volatility.