🔍 Fundamental Overview
Gold enters the week in a consolidation phase after pulling back from mid week highs. Despite recent pressure, gold remains firmly above the critical 5,000 USD threshold, supported by structural bullish factors.
🇺🇸 US Macro Drivers
• Stronger U.S. labor data pressures gold:
January employment increased at the fastest pace in more than a year, and unemployment declined, confirming U.S. economic resilience.
• Fed rate cut expectations pushed back:
Markets shifted expectations for the first Fed cut from June → July, reducing near term downward pressure on yields and strengthening the USD slightly.
• Impact on gold:
Higher yields + stronger dollar create a headwind, explaining the correction toward 5,050.
🌍 Global Factors Supporting Gold
• Central bank demand remains strong:
Consistent accumulation continues to provide a fundamental floor for gold prices.
• Geopolitical uncertainty:
Elevated geopolitical tensions globally continue to drive safe haven demand.
• Gold recently recovered half of its earlier 13% drop in just two sessions — a sign of resilient underlying demand.

📊 Technical Analysis
Gold is stabilizing inside a broad consolidation zone after its sharp correction from the 5,500–5,550 top.
Support Levels
• 4,850–4,900 — Key structural support; losing this exposes deeper correction.
• 5,000–5,050 — Current stabilization zone; bulls defending aggressively.
Resistance Levels
• 5,100 — Upper bound of the short term range.
• 5,300–5,500 — Major resistance cluster; recovery target zone if bullish momentum resumes.
Technical Structure & Indicators
• Price is holding above the middle Bollinger Band, showing easing volatility and stabilization.
• Momentum indicators show weakened momentum, but the long term bullish structure remains.
• Market appears to be preparing for either a breakout or deeper retest of support depending on incoming U.S. data.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
• Entry Trigger: Break above 5,100–5,150
• Targets:
o 5,300
o 5,500 (full recovery zone)
• Stop Loss: Below 4,900
• Catalysts:
o Softer U.S. economic data
o Renewed geopolitical tensions
o Dovish shifts in Fed rhetoric
• Rationale:
The long term uptrend remains intact, and consolidation above 5,000 suggests buyers are ready to re enter if rate expectations soften.

❌ Bearish Scenario
• Entry Trigger: Breakdown below 4,900
• Targets:
o 4,850
o Potential extension toward 4,700 if momentum accelerates
• Stop Loss: Above 5,050
• Catalysts:
o Strong U.S. labor or inflation data
o Continued pushback of Fed rate cut expectations
• Rationale:
A break of the key support range would indicate that the correction is not finished and could deepen further.