Weekly Analysis List
XAU/USD Weekly Analysis
2/2/26
Market Overview
XAUUSD – Weekly Analysis (02–06 February 2026)
Current Price: ~4,520 USD
Gold starts the week under corrective pressure, trading near 4,520 USD, after failing to sustain highs and facing renewed USD strength ahead of key U.S. data and FOMC commentary.
Overall Bias:
Short Term Bearish Correction,
Medium Term Bullish Trend Still Intact
Expected Weekly Range: 4,400 – 4,800 USD
1. Fundamental Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Drivers
FOMC Member Bostic’s Speech – Primary Catalyst
Gold traders are focused on the speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic, whose comments on:
• interest rate expectations,
• inflation trajectory,
• and economic conditions
may significantly impact USD and bond yields.
A hawkish tone = stronger USD → bearish for gold.
US Manufacturing PMI (Expected: 51.9)
A slightly stronger PMI reading signals expanding economic activity and may reinforce USD strength, putting downward pressure on gold.
General Macro Backdrop
Despite recent pullbacks, gold remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty and USD volatility — any renewed USD weakness can quickly lift XAUUSD.
2. Technical Analysis
Trend Structure
Gold remains inside a broad ascending channel, but the current move is a correction phase within that larger bullish structure.
Bearish Reversal Signal
On the H4 chart:
• A Hanging Man pattern printed near the upper Bollinger Band → signals a short term top and downside continuation.
Correction Target
• Primary pullback target: 4,400 USD
(aligned with rising channel support)
Alternative Upside Scenario
If buyers regain momentum without hitting 4,400:
• Price may revisit 4,800 USD
Momentum Overview
• Trend remains bullish on higher timeframes,
• But short term signals show slowing upside momentum.
Key Support Levels
• 4,400 USD → Main correction target
• 4,250 USD → Deeper correction threshold
(break opens risk to 4,000)
Key Resistance Levels
• 4,800 USD → First resistance / potential bullish reclaim
• 5,100 USD → Breakout continuation target (Buy stop scenario)
• 5,550 USD → Wider range major resistance
3. Trading Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Less Likely Short Term)
Trigger: Break back above 4,800 USD
Targets:
• 5,100 USD
• 5,550 USD
Rationale:
Would require USD weakness + dovish tone from Fed speakers.
Bearish Scenario (Primary Expectation)
Trigger: Breakdown toward or below 4,400 USD
Targets:
• 4,250 USD
• 4,000 USD (if 4,250 breaks)
Rationale:
Technical reversal + strong USD + hawkish Fed communication.
4. Market Sentiment
Short Term Sentiment:
Bearish — driven by:
• stronger USD,
• bearish H4 pattern,
• upcoming FOMC risk.
Medium Term Sentiment:
Bullish — supported by:
• persistent geopolitical uncertainties,
• structural gold uptrend,
• intact ascending channel.
Conclusion
Summary
• Gold is in a short term correction but remains within a long term bullish structure.
• 4,400 USD is the critical level this week.
• A bullish recovery requires reclaiming 4,800 USD.
• Fed commentary and PMI data are the key short term drivers.
Base Case (Most Likely):
📉 Correction toward 4,400 USD before a potential medium term rebound