1. Fundamental Analysis
🇺🇸 United States
Softer U.S. Rhetoric Reduces Geopolitical Premium
• The U.S. softened its tone toward Europe; Trump abandoned tariff threats related to Greenland and ruled out use of force.
This led to a partial reduction in the geopolitical risk premium, triggering short term profit taking in gold.
Markets Await Key U.S. Data & Fed Decision
• Traders are watching US durable goods orders and the Federal Reserve meeting on 28 January.
• Expectations remain stable—no immediate policy shift, which keeps gold supported structurally.
🌍 Global Macro & Risk Environment
Safe Haven Demand Remains Intact Despite Pullback
• Trade uncertainty continues as EU lawmakers suspended approval of the EU–US trade agreement—keeping geopolitical tension elevated.
Japan’s Fiscal Risk Adds Additional Gold Support
• A sell off in Japanese Government Bonds due to election related tax cut promises raised concerns about Japan’s fiscal sustainability, benefiting gold sentiment.
Net Impact:
Gold remains fundamentally supported by uncertainty, safe haven flows, and stable Fed expectations, even as geopolitical pressure temporarily eases.

2. Technical Analysis
Trend Structure
• Gold remains within a strong ascending channel, despite the current correction.
Nearest support sits at 4,750–4,700, while resistance lies at 4,880–4,900 (all time highs).
Market Context
• Weekly close near 4,780 USD confirms price is holding very high levels.
Corrections remain controlled and align with a healthy bullish structure.
Corrective Phase Indicators
• Price is consolidating after a record rally.
• As long as gold stays above 4,700, the bullish trend remains intact.
A break below would raise deeper correction risks toward 4,600–4,550.

Key Support Levels
• 4,750 – 4,700 → First support zone
• 4,600 – 4,550 → Medium term support
• 4,675 → Deeper correction area from alternate models
Key Resistance Levels
• 4,880 – 4,900 → Primary resistance / all time highs
• 5,000+ → Technical extension level from higher timeframe models
(supported by January rally context)

3. Trading Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Primary Expectation)
Trigger:
Hold above 4,700 or break above 4,880–4,900.
Targets:
• 4,900 (immediate retest)
• 5,000+ (next psychological + structural level)
Rationale:
Medium term uptrend, strong safe haven demand, and structural support from fiscal/geopolitical risk.

Bearish Correction Scenario (Secondary)
Trigger:
Break below 4,700.
Targets:
• 4,600
• 4,550 (medium term support)
• 4,425 (broader channel break level)
Rationale:
Profit taking, reduced geopolitical premium, or stronger than expected U.S. data could deepen correction.

4. Market Sentiment
• Gold sentiment: Still bullish despite mild correction
• USD sentiment: Stabilizing, but not strong enough to reverse gold
• Risk appetite: Mixed—geopolitical cooling reduces immediate pressure, but global uncertainty persists
• Trend confidence: High, as long as 4,700 holds