Weekly Analysis List
XAU/USD Weekly Analysis
7/28/25
Market Overview
🟡 XAU/USD Weekly Analysis (July 28 – August 1, 2025)
📊 Market Snapshot
• Current Price (as of July 28): ~$3,338/oz
• Last Week’s Range (July 21–25):
o Opened at $3,406.40
o High: $3,451.70 (July 23)
o Low: $3,362.90 (July 25)
o Closed around $3,363.90
• Trend: Gold experienced a corrective pullback after testing multi-week highs. The pair remains within an ascending triangle and headed into key central bank events.
🔍 Technical Overview
• Support Levels:
o $3,326–$3,338 → Tested multiple times; key demand zone
o $3,322–$3,310 → Minor support cluster below recent lows
• Resistance Levels:
o $3,360–$3,370 → Upper boundary of July consolidation zone; multiple tests last week
o $3,390 → Forecast target zone for bullish breakout
• Momentum Indicators:
o Price forming a rising triangle pattern, nearing upper band
o RSI/MACD show fading momentum—momentum peaked mid-week with slower recovery
o DailyPriceAction notes gold edging below its May trend line—failure to reclaim support may strengthen bearish case
📰 Fundamental Highlights
• US–EU Trade Deal: New 15% tariff agreement briefly reduced safe-haven inflows—gold dipped, though some safe-haven demand remains intact.
• Fed & BoJ in Focus: Markets await Fed minutes and BOJ policy commentary this week; traders look for clues on rate direction.
• Mixed Momentum Outlook: Despite recent high, HSBC and Citi analysts point to fading momentum and decreasing physical demand, cautioning a possible correction later in 2025.
📅 Key Events to Watch This Week
• Wednesday, July 30 – Fed meeting minutes
• Thursday, July 31 – Fed speakers & US inflation data
• Friday, August 1 – US NFP, durable goods orders, and any trade headline updates
📈 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
🔼 Bullish Scenario
• Sustained hold above $3,338 and a breakout above $3,370 could target $3,390 or higher.
• A strong FOMC statement or weaker USD sentiment may reinforce upside momentum.
🔽 Bearish Scenario
• Break below $3,338–3,326 may lead to deeper correction toward $3,310 or testing $3,285–3,275 range if price breaks out of the triangle downside.
• Improving risk appetite or firm USD data may suppress gold further.
Conclusion
💡 Trader Tip
“Gold is consolidating near prior highs inside a rising triangle pattern. The $3,338–$3,360 zone defines the short-term battleground. A break above may fuel continuation toward $3,390, while a close below could reanimate a deeper pullback.”