🌍 Fundamental Drivers
🟢 Bullish Factors
• Fed Rate Cut Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch Tool (August 2025), markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.
• Soft US Inflation: Recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics came in below forecasts, enhancing safe-haven demand for gold.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Statements from Russian officials and ongoing uncertainty in US trade policy, as reported by Reuters (August 2025), are fueling risk aversion.
🔴 Bearish Factors
• Rising Equity Markets: Optimism in US and global stock indices, as tracked by Bloomberg Market Data, is diverting flows away from gold.
• Fed Caution: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (August 2025, FederalReserve.gov) reiterated inflation persistence, tempering expectations for aggressive policy easing.
📈 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• Primary: 3,350 → 3,332 → 3,322
• Extended: 3,283 → 3,245 → 3,220
Resistance Levels:
• Primary: 3,380 → 3,416
• Extended: 3,439 → 3,500
Upper Band: 3,430–3,450 zone
Indicators:
MACD: Near zero, indicating low momentum
Stochastic Oscillator: In the mid-zone, reflecting a lack of clear trend
Price Structure: Consolidation phase since May within the 3,245–3,420 range
📌 Trading Scenarios & Risk Management
🟢 Bullish Setup
• Buy Zone: Above 3,350
• Targets: 3,380 → 3,416 → 3,439 → 3,500
• Confirmation: Breakout above 3,439 with weak US macro data or dovish Fed commentary
• Risk Management: Consider placing stop-loss orders below 3,322 to manage downside risk and ensure prudent position sizing based on account size and volatility.
🔴 Bearish Setup
• Sell Zone: Below 3,345
• Targets: 3,283 → 3,245 → 3,220
• Confirmation: Breakdown below 3,350 with rising US Treasury yields or hawkish Fed signals
• Risk Management: For short trades, set stop-loss orders above 3,380, and adjust position size to reflect personal risk tolerance and market volatility.