🔍 Fundamental Overview
Gold enters the second week of February navigating elevated volatility, mixed U.S. macro signals, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, while the long term structural bull trend remains intact.

🇺🇸 United States
• Fed Dynamics: Hawkish commentary and inflation concerns have reduced expectations for rapid Fed rate cuts—creating temporary downward pressure on gold in early February.
• Macro Data: Mixed signals—weak ADP employment vs. strong ISM services—create an uneven fundamental backdrop. CPI and NFP this week are expected to be major catalysts.
• USD Impact: US dollar strength recently weighed on gold, though dips continue attracting safe haven flows.

🌍 Global Factors
• Geopolitical Risks: US–Iran tensions remain a wild card; planned talks reduced immediate fears but geopolitical risk premium remains embedded.
• Central Bank Demand: Global central banks, including the PBoC, continue accumulating gold—China added reserves for the 15th straight month.
• Market Psychology: After an extreme late January surge (+6% intraday, largest since 2008), gold has entered a “redistribution” phase, cooling overshoot momentum.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels
• 4,860–4,900 — Near term consolidation and reaction band acting as immediate support/resistance flip.
• 4,725–4,500 — Broader structural support and recovery base from early February pullback.
• 4,500–4,550 — Key psychological support referenced in multiple February frameworks.

Resistance Levels
• 4,900–5,000 — Active resistance zone; sustained break required for bullish continuation.
• 5,050 – 5,075 — Critical breakout threshold signaling renewed upside.
• 5,145 – 5,103 – 5,063 — Multi layered resistance band based on technical projections.
Indicators
• Volatility: Bands narrowing after extreme swings, indicating stabilization with elevated volatility risk.
• Momentum: Indicators show weakening momentum but not full reversal—consistent with consolidation.
• Trend Structure: Overall uptrend intact, but price action has shifted into a redistribution/corrective phase.

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup
• Entry: Above 5,050–5,075 (confirmation of recovery continuation)
• Targets:
   • 5,145 (major resistance)
   • 5,480 (next structural resistance per H4 pattern)
• Stop Loss: Below 4,860
• Catalysts:
   • Softer CPI + weak labor data
   • Risk off environment
   • Falling real yields / weaker USD
• Rationale: A breakout over 5,050 signals a phase shift from consolidation to trend continuation.

❌ Bearish Setup
• Entry: Below 4,860 (loss of consolidation base)
• Targets:
   • 4,725 → 4,500 (major support cluster)
   • Deep correction potential below 4,450 if risk-off unwinds
• Stop Loss: Above 4,950
• Catalysts:
   • Hot CPI + strong NFP data
   • Hawkish Fed comments
   • Renewed dollar strength
• Rationale: Breakdown below the short-term range reopens the corrective leg toward deeper structural supports.