🔍 Fundamental Overview
Gold remains near historic highs after a strong rally earlier in October, supported by macro uncertainty and dovish monetary expectations.
Key Drivers:
• Federal Reserve Policy: Markets fully price in another rate cut in late October and ~90% odds of one more in December. Lower rates reduce opportunity cost of holding gold.
• U.S. Government Shutdown: Ongoing shutdown delays official data releases, adding uncertainty and boosting safe-haven demand.
• Geopolitical Risks: U.S.-China trade negotiations and Middle East tensions sustain risk aversion.
• Central Bank Buying & ETF Inflows: Robust institutional demand continues to underpin gold prices.
• Dollar Weakness: A softer USD amplifies gold’s bullish backdrop.
📊 Technical Analysis
Current Structure:
• Price corrected from all-time high at $4,380 to ~$4,230–$4,280, signaling profit-taking but maintaining bullish structure.
• Indicators show mixed momentum: RSI near overbought zone, MACD still positive, Bollinger Bands narrowing (potential breakout).
Support Levels:
• $4,150 – immediate support
• $4,100 – key cluster
• $4,000 – deeper corrective target
Resistance Levels:
• $4,300 – $4,350 – near-term resistance band
• $4,380 – record high; breakout above opens path to $4,400+
Trend Indicators:
• 50-day MA: Upward slope, trend intact above $4,000
• Stochastic: Recovering from oversold, signaling possible bullish resumption
• ATR: Elevated volatility, expect wide intraday swings

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above $4,300 with strong momentum
• Targets: $4,350 ➡️ $4,380 ➡️ $4,400
• Stop-Loss: Below $4,150
• Catalysts: Fed rate cut confirmation, continued ETF inflows, geopolitical flare-ups
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below $4,150
• Targets: $4,100 ➡️ $4,000
• Stop-Loss: Above $4,300
• Catalysts: Easing geopolitical tensions, stronger U.S. data, hawkish Fed surprises