📌 Fundamental Overview
🌍 Macro Drivers
1. Gold enters 2026 after a historic year
Gold surged nearly 65% in 2025, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979.
This rally was powered by:
• aggressive global central bank gold buying,
• a global interest rate cutting cycle,
• and elevated safe haven demand across Q4.
2. Start of 2026: Bullish but more balanced
While the long term bullish case remains intact, analysts note that 2026 will be more balanced than 2025, with tailwinds softening:
• central bank buying may slow at high prices,
• much of the Fed easing cycle is already priced in,
• geopolitical tensions may cool, reducing haven demand.
3. Geopolitical shock: U.S. operation in Venezuela re ignites safe haven flows
A key short term catalyst:
• A U.S. military operation in Venezuela and capture of President Maduro has revived safe haven demand, especially significant because Venezuela holds South America’s largest gold reserves (≈161 tonnes).
This event increased volatility and kept traders defensive entering the week.

📊 Technical Analysis
Overall Structure
Gold ended December with a strong bullish monthly close, but the final weekly candle showed a sharp rejection from record highs above $4,500, producing a near term consolidation zone.
Key Resistance Levels
• $4,347 — First breakout trigger (1H & 30m structure)
• $4,370 — Intraday resistance
• $4,395 — Hourly resistance, major cap for the week
Broader resistance remains near $4,400–$4,500, as highlighted in market forecasts.
Key Support Levels
• $4,310 — Short term sell trigger
• $4,285 — 4H support zone
• $4,257 — Rejection level from December
Technical backdrop remains constructive, with gold in a rising channel supported by an ascending trendline from early December.

📈 Trading Scenarios
🔵 Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias)
• Entry: Break above $4,347
• Targets:
o $4,370,
o $4,395,
o $4,400+ if momentum accelerates
• Stop Loss: Below $4,310
• Why:
o ongoing safe haven demand after Venezuela shock,
o Fed easing expectations continue to support gold,
o constructive technical structure (rising channel).

🔴 Bearish Scenario (Corrective Move)
• Entry: Break below $4,310
• Targets:
o $4,285
o $4,257 (4H rejection zone)
• Stop Loss: Above $4,347
• Why:
o post record high exhaustion,
o year opening volatility,
o potential cooling in geopolitical fear flows if conditions stabilize.