Weekly Analysis List
XAU/USD Weekly Analysis
6/30/25
Market Overview
🟡 XAU/USD Weekly Analysis (June 30 – July 4, 2025)
📊 Market Snapshot
Current Price (June 30, 2025): $3,293.55/oz
Last Week's Range: $3,265 – $3,320
Weekly Overview: Gold traded within a narrow range as improved investor risk appetite was counterbalanced by the supportive impact of a weaker dollar near the lower end of the range.
🔍 Technical Overview
Support Levels
• $3,265 – Key short-term support, tested multiple times
• $3,245 – Near oversold stochastic range
• $3,225–3,250 – Medium-term structural support zone
Resistance Levels:
• $3,300 – Psychological round number and current pivot zone
• $3,315 – Short-term resistance tested earlier this month
• $3,350 – Significant resistance around the 50-day moving average
Momentum Indicators:
• Price remains above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, indicating a technically bullish bias.
• RSI is approximately 60, suggesting moderate upward momentum without reaching overbought territory.
📰 Fundamental Highlights
• Weaker USD: The U.S. dollar experienced a decline, providing support to gold prices amid mixed Federal Reserve policy expectations.
• Risk Sentiment: Increased risk appetite limited the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
• Geopolitical Calm: The absence of major global conflict escalations this week alleviated upward pressure on gold prices.
📅 Key Events to Watch
• Wednesday, July 2 – U.S. ADP Employment Report
• Thursday, July 3 – Initial Jobless Claims (U.S.)
• Friday, July 4 – U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
📌 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
🔼 Bullish Scenario
• Maintaining levels above $3,265 preserves upside potential.
• A breakout above $3,300 could lead to tests of $3,315 and potentially $3,350 if momentum strengthens.
🔽 Bearish Scenario
• A sustained drop below $3,265 may accelerate a decline towards $3,245, followed by $3,225.
• Strong U.S. labor market data could reinforce Federal Reserve hawkishness and exert downward pressure on gold prices.
Conclusion
💡 Trader Tip
“Gold remains in a consolidation phase, with price action coiling between $3,265 and $3,300. Monitor the market closely for a breakout post-NFP. Unexpected outcomes in labor market data are likely to drive significant movements.”