🔍 Fundamental Overview
Gold enters the week in a high sensitivity consolidation phase, driven by conflicting forces: stronger U.S. macroeconomic data pressuring the metal downward, while structural safe haven demand and central bank buying keep it supported above the 5,000 threshold.
🇺🇸 U.S. Drivers
• Stronger labor market pressures gold:
January employment increased at the fastest pace in over a year, and unemployment unexpectedly declined. This reinforced the U.S. economy’s strength and pressured gold as markets delayed the expected first Fed rate cut from June to July.
• Rate cut expectations trimmed:
Markets now expect fewer rate cuts in 2026, reducing downward pressure on yields and modestly supporting the U.S. dollar.
🌍 Global Macro & Gold Specific Factors
• Gold remains firmly above 5,000 despite the pullback, reflecting durable long term demand.
• Strong central bank accumulation continues to provide a structural floor for gold prices.
• Geopolitical tensions (multiple regions globally) keep safe haven demand elevated and limit downside potential.

📊 Technical Analysis
After peaking near 5,500–5,550, gold retraced sharply and is now stabilizing in a wide but controlled range.
Market Structure
• Gold is consolidating within the 5,000–5,100 range after recovering nearly half the prior 13% decline in just two sessions.
• Bollinger Bands are narrowing, signaling reduced volatility and a potential setup for a larger directional move.
• Momentum indicators show weakening bullish momentum, but the overall long term uptrend remains intact.
Key Support Levels
• 4,850–4,900 — Major structural support; losing this zone would deepen correction risks.
• 5,000 — Psychological and technical support currently defended by buyers.
Key Resistance Levels
• 5,100 — First recovery barrier
• 5,300–5,500 — Major resistance zone and upside target range for any sustained bullish continuation

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
• Entry Trigger: Break & close above 5,100–5,150
• Targets:
o 5,300
o 5,500
• Stop Loss: Below 4,900
• Catalysts:
o Softer upcoming U.S. labor or inflation data
o Renewed geopolitical tensions
o More dovish Fed commentary
• Rationale:
With the long term uptrend intact and gold holding above 5,000, a break above 5,100 would confirm bullish momentum resuming toward the upper range.

❌ Bearish Scenario
• Entry Trigger: Break below 4,900
• Targets:
o 4,850
o Extension toward 4,700 if selling accelerates
• Stop Loss: Above 5,050
• Catalysts:
o Strong U.S. macro data (NFP, CPI, PMI)
o Hawkish Fed commentary
o Renewed USD strengthening
• Rationale:
A confirmed break of the main structural support would signal that the correction is not complete and could deepen toward the 4,800–4,700 zone.