Technical Overview
• Support Levels:
• $3,350 – This is a major base, with repeated retests in recent sessions signaling strong buying interest.
• $3,245 – A deeper support level, relevant only if there is a breakdown below the current range.
Resistance Levels:
$3,415 – The short-term ceiling; a breakout from the $3,350–$3,380 corridor could trigger a move toward this level.
$3,435 and $3,500 – A higher resistance cluster; clearing these levels could open the path to new all-time highs. Technical analysis suggests a breakout from the bullish ascending triangle could target $3,735 based on a measured move.
Momentum Indicators:
Gold has remained above its 50-day moving average, indicating a continued bullish bias.
Although the technical structure favors a possible breakout, momentum appears to be stalling somewhat.
Forecasts from Citi suggest caution, estimating gold may consolidate in the $3,100–$3,500 zone through Q3 before potentially trending lower.
Weekly Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Scenario
• Trigger: A sustained break above $3,415.
• Targets:
• $3,435 – The upper limit of triangle resistance.
• $3,500+ – A push toward new highs, with a full breakout possibly reaching $3,735.
Note: The bullish outlook strengthens if global risks escalate and the Fed signals a dovish policy shift.
Bearish Scenario
• Trigger: A break below $3,350.
• Targets:
• $3,245 – The next meaningful support zone.
• $3,150+ – A deeper correction, should downside momentum intensify.
Note: Any shift in U.S. policy or improvement in macroeconomic sentiment may reduce safe-haven demand, potentially pressuring gold prices lower.