🔍 Fundamental Overview
Gold continues to trade near its all-time high of 3,897 USD/oz, supported by dovish Fed expectations, geopolitical tensions, and strong safe-haven demand. The U.S. government shutdown and weak labor data further reinforce bullish sentiment.
🇺🇸 United States:
• Fed Outlook: High probability of another rate cut in October following September’s easing.
• Labor Market: ADP report showed private sector job losses—the largest since March 2023.
• Shutdown Impact: Nonfarm Payrolls report delayed, increasing uncertainty.
• Political Risk: Shutdown leaves thousands of federal workers unpaid, boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal.
🌍 Global Factors:
• Geopolitical Tensions: Rising global risks continue to support gold demand.
• Central Bank Buying: Ongoing accumulation by major economies.
• Market Sentiment: Investors favor gold amid economic and political instability.

📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• 3,627 – key weekly support
• 3,500 – intermediate base
• 3,440 – correction zone
Resistance Levels:
• 3,897 – all-time high
• 3,900 – breakout level
• 4,000 – psychological target
Indicators:
• MACD: Bullish continuation
• RSI: 63 – strong momentum
• Bollinger Bands: Expanding – volatility rising
• Trend Structure: Strong uptrend since August; breakout from multi-month range confirmed

📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above 3,897
• Targets: 3,900 ➡️ 4,000
• Stop-Loss: Below 3,627
• Catalysts: Fed rate cut, geopolitical escalation, weak USD
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below 3,627
• Targets: 3,500 ➡️ 3,440
• Stop-Loss: Above 3,897
• Catalysts: Strong USD rebound, Fed hawkish surprise, easing tensions