🔍 Fundamental Overview
Gold enters December near a two-week high, supported by strong expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and persistent safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty. The metal has surged nearly 60% year-to-date, marking its best annual performance since 1979.
Key Drivers:
• Fed Policy: Markets price an 80–85% probability of a 25 bps cut at the December meeting, reinforcing gold’s appeal as real yields decline.
• US Data: Mixed signals — jobless claims below expectations, durable goods stronger, but overall growth remains soft.
• Global Demand: Central banks continue aggressive gold buying; ETF inflows remain robust.
• Sentiment: Kevin Hassett emerging as a leading candidate for Fed Chair adds to dovish expectations.
Macro Context:
• Dollar weakness and falling Treasury yields underpin bullish momentum.
• Geopolitical tensions and fiscal concerns (US debt >125% of GDP) sustain structural demand for gold.
📊 Technical Analysis
Support Levels:
• $4,125 – Immediate support (Bollinger mid-band)
• $4,070 – Secondary support
• $3,997 – Key demand zone
Resistance Levels:
• $4,245 – Near-term resistance
• $4,285 – Upper Bollinger band
• $4,378 – All-time high (October peak)
Indicators:
• MACD: Bullish momentum intact; histogram positive
• RSI: ~74 (weekly) – Overbought, signaling potential corrective pause
• Stochastic: Deep in overbought territory (>90), risk of short-term pullback
• Trend: Price remains above 50-day MA and inside bullish channel; breakout above $4,245 could target $4,300–$4,350
📈 Trading Scenarios
✅ Bullish Setup:
• Entry: Above $4,250 with confirmation
• Targets: $4,300 ➡️ $4,350
• Stop-Loss: Below $4,200
• Catalysts: Fed rate cut, continued dollar weakness, geopolitical risk
❌ Bearish Setup:
• Entry: Below $4,125
• Targets: $4,070 ➡️ $3,997
• Stop-Loss: Above $4,245
• Catalysts: Hawkish Fed surprise, profit-taking, easing geopolitical tensions