1. Fundamental Analysis
🇺🇸 United States
Fed Easing Expectations Fuel Gold Demand
• US producer inflation for November came in weaker than expected, reinforcing the narrative of slowing price pressure and increasing the likelihood of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026.
• Political pressure on the Federal Reserve — particularly concerns about threats to its independence — further weakened the USD, adding additional upside pressure to XAUUSD.
Geopolitics & USD Weakness
• Global uncertainty and tariff related tensions have sustained safe haven demand for gold, with the USD under pressure from rising geopolitical risk.
• Although tensions around Iran eased slightly, the overall risk backdrop remains supportive for gold.
Net Effect:
The macro environment heavily favors gold: weaker inflation, rising Fed cut expectations, and persistent uncertainty continue to fuel the bullish trend.

🌍 Global & Market Sentiment
Safe Haven Flows Remain Strong
• Gold demand remains elevated due to geopolitical instability and concerns about economic fragility.
Central Bank Influence
• Major central banks voiced support for Fed Chair Jerome Powell amid political pressure, reinforcing expectations that monetary easing remains on the table — a strongly bullish factor for gold.
Net Effect:
Investors continue to rotate into gold as a hedge against political and monetary uncertainty.

2. Technical Analysis
Trend Structure
• XAUUSD remains in a strong ascending channel, with price action consolidating just below record highs.
• A fresh all time high was recently set near 4,670–4,730, after which gold entered a corrective wave while staying bullish.
Current Market Pattern
• A Hammer reversal pattern formed on H4 near the lower Bollinger Band suggests continuation to the upside toward 4,730.
• Broader structure remains bullish as long as price holds above 4,430.
Key Indicators
• Trend: Bullish with consolidation
• Volatility: Elevated
• Market structure: Higher highs / higher lows remain intact

Key Support Levels
• 4,475 – 4,430 → Nearest weekly support zone
• 4,275 → Major medium term support
• 4,630 → Intraday corrective support

Key Resistance Levels
• 4,580 – 4,620 → Primary resistance / all time high zone
• 4,670 – 4,730 → Breakout target if bulls extend the rally

3. Trading Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Primary Expectation)
Trigger: Break & close above 4,620
• Targets:
o 4,670
o 4,730 (RoboForex H4 extension target)
• Stop: Below 4,430 (loss of channel support)
Rationale:
Fed cut expectations, weak inflation data, and USD pressure strongly favor further upside.

Bearish Scenario (Lower Probability)
Trigger: Break below 4,430
• Targets:
o 4,275 → Medium term support
o 4,520 (intraday support breakdown level)
• Stop: Above 4,580
Rationale:
Only likely if US data unexpectedly strengthens, slowing expectations for Fed cuts, or if geopolitical risks materially decline.

4. Market Sentiment
• Gold sentiment: Strongly bullish
• USD sentiment: Weak due to political pressure and lower inflation
• Risk sentiment: Uncertainty keeps hedging demand elevated
• Overall: XAUUSD remains supported unless 4,430 breaks definitively