📰 Fundamental Highlights
The U.S. dollar gained against the yen following encouraging developments in U.S.-China trade talks, reducing market concerns of a broader trade conflict.
A preliminary agreement aimed at lowering the U.S. trade deficit with China was announced, with more details expected shortly.
Investors are focusing on upcoming U.S. economic data, including the Consumer Price Index and retail sales, to assess the impact on the economy and Federal Reserve policy.
Geopolitical tensions have lessened, with a ceasefire between India and Pakistan and potential direct talks between Ukraine and Russia, decreasing the demand for safe-haven currencies like the yen.
🔮 Weekly Outlook & Strategy
Bullish Scenario:
A sustained break above 146.50 could lead to further gains towards 147.30 and potentially 148.00.
Positive U.S. economic data and continued reduction in geopolitical tensions would support this outlook.
Bearish Scenario:
Failure to break above 146.50 may result in a pullback towards support levels at 145.00 or 144.20.
Negative surprises in U.S. economic data or renewed geopolitical tensions could trigger this move.
Neutral Scenario:
Consolidation between 145.00 and 146.50 as the market awaits clearer signals from economic data and geopolitical events.
📌 Bias: Bullish, with caution due to potential overbought conditions and upcoming economic data releases.
📆 Key Events to Watch
May 14: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
May 16: U.S. Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
May 15: Japan's Preliminary GDP for Q1 2025